CASE STUDY: GREETING CARDS (Emotion Validation - Sales prediction)

NOTE: This study was carried out with Emotion Tool® 2.2. (Previous software release).

Agency:
DBM Consultants (www.dbmcons.com.au)
Date: September 2008
Client: Large Greeting Card Company
Place: Australia

Background / Objectives

The purpose of this study was to validate Emotion Tool®’s measurements by comparing them to existing market performance metrics. Several greeting cards products of one of the world’s largest providers were evaluated as stimuli against their known market performance metrics (sales data).

NOTE: The company provided sales performance data after the validation test was completed, to enable comparison and modeling of results.
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Methodology


Validation testing comprised two stages: Emotion Tool® testing and eye tracking responses, followed by completion of a brief questionnaire containing a set of cognitive measures.

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The Emotion Tool® testing allows us to:

  • Measure the emotional effect of the stimulus - its ‘stopping’ power or ability to be noticed.
  • Identify how individuals view and process the stimulus - its ability to convey a message.

The questionnaire allows us to:

  • Collect cognitive responses to the stimulus and determine the extent to which it was relevant and likable and its potential to influence purchase.

Number of images tested: 19 greeting cards (3 stimuli each)
Number of Respondents: 60
Segmentation: Females and Males

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Conclusions / Learnings


We are excited by the ability of of the Emotion Tool® to successfully predict the sales outcome of products in the Australian market. Based on these tests, we found:

  • The Emotion Tool® metrics, when used in combination with cognitive metrics, were able to successfully predict market outcomes for a majority of the time.
  • The Emotion Tool® also provided valuable diagnostics on how the executions could be improved by highlighting which elements of the stimuli attracted the most attention and which failed to gain any or limited attention.
  • Using the Emotion Tool® data and cognitive responses, we were able to develop a model to predict sales of greeting cards that closely matched actual sales results 8 out of 10 times.
  • 16 of 19 predictions were within 10 percentage points of actual performance
  • 9 of 19 predictions were within 5 percentage points of actual performance
  • Only 2 of 19 predictions incorrectly predicted sales performance based on client provided sales performance



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